We seek an outstanding computational epidemiologist or mathematical modeller for a four-year research position at the University of Cape Town on using mathematical modelling to understand future trajectories for the HIV epidemic and identify optimal indicators for monitoring epidemic trends.

Candidates will be considered at either postdoctoral or predoctoral level. For interested predoctoral candidates, there is an expectation of PhD study alongside project research responsibilities.

The candidate will work with Associate Professor Leigh Johnson (University of Cape Town) and Dr. Jeff Imai-Eaton (Harvard University) to develop and apply the Thembisa and MicroCOSM models to address several critical research questions:

• How are new HIV infections across population risk groups and demographic groups expected to change under alternative future epidemiologic and programmatic scenarios?
• What routinely-observable monitoring indicators best reflect underlying epidemiologic changes?
• What are appropriate indicator thresholds to trigger expanded public health response to changing HIV infection patterns?
• Can novel targeted surveillance strategies improve precision of HIV incidence estimates and reduce time to detect important HIV epidemic changes?

Research will contribute to Kuzama pa Kalondo (‘Getting smart’ on HIV surveillance), a new project funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to develop future-oriented strategies for monitoring sustained HIV epidemic control using routine health system data and targeted surveillance in settings sustaining effective HIV programmes and low and declining new HIV infections. The project is a collaboration of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, UCT, Kamuzu University of Health Sciences, Nyanja Health Research Institute, and African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP). Project outcomes will guide changing regional and global HIV programme and monitoring strategies including through the UNAIDS Reference Group on HIV Estimates, Modelling and Projections, World Health Organization, PEPFAR, US CDC, and Africa CDC.

The successful candidate will be based within the Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research (CIDER) at the University of Cape Town, a leading international research centre in HIV epidemiology. CIDER hosts Project Linganisa, a project to support South African HIV & TB programmes through modelling. CIDER also coordinates the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration, and is closely integrated with the Western Cape provincial health department. The candidate will engage with a vibrant local infectious disease modelling research and training community, including the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA) at UCT and the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) at the University of Stellenbosch. Internationally, the candidate will be affiliated with the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard University and the MRC Centre for Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.