About the Project
Vaccination is a highly effective public health intervention that prevents morbidity and mortality. The UK vaccination programme evolves in response to vaccine developments and emerging evidence. This may include the addition of new vaccines, or removal of old vaccines or booster doses. Following a modification to the vaccine schedule, there is a delay before the impact on key indicators such as diagnosed cases, hospital admissions and deaths is observed. This delay hampers the responsiveness of public health action. We are developing saliva-based tests that will facilitate rapid, repeated sampling to measure both carriage of respiratory pathogens and mucosal immunocorrelates, and thus detect changes in population immunity before disease cases present. The aim of these tests is to develop a surveillance programme that will provide an early warning system for lapses in population-level protection and allow for adaptive management of the UK vaccine schedule.

Project aims:
The aim of this PhD is to use data analytics, data linkage and mathematical models to inform the use and necessary test characteristics of saliva-based tests for vaccination evaluation. The aims of the project are to:

Develop transmission models for vaccine-preventable respiratory pathogens (Streptococcus pneumoniae and Respiratory Syncytial Virus) and emerging threats (Group A Streptococcus) in the UK
Identify opportunities for early identification of changes in population immunity that would provide a rapid assessment of vaccine effectiveness and coverage.
Explore the trade-offs involved in detecting population protection.

Methods:
This PhD will use data analysis, statistical and mathematical modelling to inform the use of a rapid and scalable test to measure changes in vaccine coverage and population protection. The methods will involve data analysis, visualisation and code development using software such as R, describing immunological process of transmission mathematically, reviewing and interpreting the literature and working with and maintaining an inter-disciplinary network of collaborators. In year 1, you will work with immunologists to use immunological data to develop data-driven mathematical models of the dynamics of transmission, carriage and infection for respiratory infectious diseases. In year 2, you will design models that link vaccination, disease transmission, carriage and healthcare usage. In year 3, you will explore the impact of changes to the vaccine schedule on population immunity and subsequently invasive disease and determine the necessary test uptake and characteristics needed to provide an early indication of changes to population immunity. There will be scope for the successful candidate to shape the research.