Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a
respiratory condition that has high morbidity and mortality,
and a growing global burden. Exacerbations are acute
worsenings of the symptoms of COPD, which often result in
hospitalization, progression of symptoms, and sometimes
death. Exacerbations can be caused by respiratory viruses,
poor air quality, temperature, and other factors. This PhD
project will use electronic health record data from a study site
in Nha Trang Vietnam, together with respiratory virus
surveillance data from the same area, to understand the links
between COPD hospitalization, viral circulation, and other
factors.

The project will develop mathematical transmission models
for key respiratory virus(es) and fit those to data. The project
will develop a Bayesian estimation framework to quantify the
role of infectious and non-infectious factors in observed
COPD exacerbation time series. The project aims to
understand the interplay between these factors and may be
able to assess or design control strategies to decrease the
burden of COPD in this area.

The student will develop skills in infectious disease modelling,
analysing surveillance data and electronic health records
data, and fitting models to data.

They will build skills in scientific writing, as well as critical
reading of the literature. The student will also learn to give
clear scientific presentations and posters communicating their
work.

LSHTM requires at least 2 supervisors, and this project benefits from 3! Dr Rosalind Eggo is an Assistant Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling, Prof Liam Smeeth is a full Professor of Non-communicable disease Epidemiology, and Prof Lay Myint Yoshida of Nagasaki University is a Professor of Infectious Diseases. It is expected that the student will make trips to Nagasaki University and/or the study site in Viet Nam during the studentship.

The student will join the dynamic Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (http://cmmid.lshtm.ac.uk/), with a cohort of PhD students, and the vibrant Electronic Health Records research group (http://ehr.lshtm.ac.uk/). There are multiple seminars, social activities, conferences, and opportunities, associated with membership of both groups.

For informal discussion ahead of application, and any questions, please contact Rosalind Eggo.