MRC NW-DMS DLA programme: Rebuilding trust in vaccination: a Large Epidemic Model to predict immunity gaps and power trustworthy public health communication

Can AI help rebuild trust in public health, and stop preventable diseases from coming back?

Measles is returning: in the UK, across Europe, in the US and Canada, and in low- and middle-income countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, while newer vaccines, such as those against RSV and influenza, are held back by low uptake. Falling trust in vaccines and in public health authorities is a major driver, and WHO has named vaccine hesitancy one of the top threats to global health. Refusal is not spread evenly: it clusters in schools, neighbourhoods and online communities, and it spreads between them. Misinformation travels faster than official advice, and distrust is often rooted in anxiety, distress and past experiences of care.

Our recent study in Nature Medicine (Chen et al. 2026) mapped measles risk across more than 50,000 US schools, 13,000 districts and 3,000 counties. After the pandemic, average susceptibility roughly doubled, and school-level risk crossed the epidemic threshold while county averages appear safe.

This PhD will build a Large Epidemic Model (LEM): an AI framework that links trust, behaviour, immunity and transmission across scales and settings, and uses what it learns not only to predict outbreaks but to communicate honestly with the public. You will:

Model how vaccine hesitancy and refusal emerge, cluster and spread in the UK, US and Canada, for different vaccines and diseases, coupled to a physics-informed Bayesian graph neural network that forecasts where immunity gaps and outbreaks will appear, from school to national level.

Bring in the psychology of trust, such as anxiety, distress and conspiracy beliefs, and examine immunisation gaps among families affected by mental illness.

Extend the model to Afghanistan and Pakistan with the WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and long-standing partners.

Build and test an ‘epidemic intelligence’ assistant: a conversational AI, grounded in the LEM and official guidance, that answers questions and creates clear local fact sheets with transparent sources and honest uncertainty, co-designed with parents, clinicians and public health teams.

You will be trained in Bayesian inference, infectious disease modelling, machine learning and large language models, mental health data science, user-centred design and responsible AI. You will be based in the Department of Health Data Science at the University of Liverpool and join the NW-DMS cohort programme across Liverpool and Manchester. The team combines AI and infectious disease modelling, medical statistics, population health informatics and digital health interventions, and mental health research, with a network spanning UKHSA, CDC, WHO, Oxford, Princeton and Cornell.

We welcome applicants from mathematics, statistics, physics, computer science, data science, epidemiology, psychology, quantitative social science or a quantitative life science. Prior knowledge of infectious diseases is not required; curiosity, quantitative ability and some programming experience matter most.

Applicants must have obtained or be about to obtain a minimum Upper Second class UK honours degree, or the equivalent qualifications gained outside the UK, in a relevant quantitative subject, such as mathematics, statistics, physics, computer science, data science, epidemiology, psychology, quantitative social science or a quantitative biological or medical science. Research experience in statistical or mathematical modelling, programming (e.g., R or Python), machine learning or natural language processing, or survey/behavioural research is desirable.

International applicants

We are only able to offer a limited number of full studentships to applicants outside the UK. Therefore, full studentships will only be awarded to exceptional quality international candidates due to the competitive nature of this scheme.

International applicants must ensure they meet the academic eligibility criteria (including English language) before applying. Visit our English Language requirements page to find out more.

Before you Apply

Browse our MRC NW-DMS DLA projects and discover one you're passionate about that matches your interests, ambitions and goals.

Applicants must make direct contact with preferred supervisors before applying. It is your responsibility to make arrangements to meet with potential supervisors, prior to submitting a formal online application.

How to Apply

All applications to University of Liverpool projects should be submitted via the Microsoft Forms link:

MRC NW-DMS DLA candidate application form 2027/28 entry - University of Liverpool – Fill in form
(https://www.findaphd.com/phds/project/mrc-nw-dms-dla-programme-rebuilding-trust-in-vaccination-a-large-epidemic-model-to-predict-immunity-gaps-and-power-trustworthy-public-health-communication/?p201609)

You may apply for up to two projects from the programme at University of Liverpool via this scheme. To do so, submit a single online application form selecting both project titles you wish to apply to.

Following your online form submission, you should then email NW-DMSrecruitment@liverpool.ac.uk with the following supporting documents:

Curriculum Vitae (CV)
Supporting Statement
Academic Certificates and Transcripts
English Language certificates where required
Passport photo page copy

Please use the email subject line: MRC NW-DMS DLA application [insert your full name] so we can match your email submission to your online form submission. Please ensure you use exactly the same first name and surname on this form and on your email. You must submit both your online form and the required supporting documents by the deadline.

If applying for two University of Liverpool projects, you only need to submit the supporting documents once.

Incomplete or late applications will not be considered.

Applications should not be made through the University of Liverpool’s application portal.

Once you have completed your application, you'll receive a confirmation email.

Deadline: Friday 27th November 2026, midnight UK time

Late or incomplete applications will not be considered.

If you need help with this stage of the process, or have any queries regarding your eligibility (such as if you achieved unexpectedly low degree results due to extenuating circumstances), please contact the Liverpool NW-DMS team for advice at NW-DMSrecruitment@liverpool.ac.uk

Equality, Diversity and Inclusion

Equality, diversity and inclusion is fundamental to the success of The University of Liverpool, and is at the heart of all of our activities. The full equality, diversity and inclusion statement can be found on our website.

Funding Notes
These studentships are available to UK and international applicants, and provide funding for tuition fees and stipend at the UKRI rate, subject to eligibility, for four years. This does not include any costs associated with relocation. This scheme is open to both UK and international applicants.

Prospective students interested in this opportunity are encouraged to contact Dr Siyu Chen (schen100@liverpool.ac.uk).