Novel TB vaccines are in late-stage trials, and optimistically may be licenced and rolled out by 2030. Assuming 50% efficacy in preventing disease, a vaccine could potentially avert up to 1.2 million TB cases in South Africa by 2050. However, vaccine hesitancy may reduce the impact of novel TB vaccines on the TB burden, and hesitancy may be higher in some key risk groups.

The student will use DHS data from South Africa to investigate risk factors for TB vaccine hesitancy, and clustering of vaccine hesitancy by household. They will develop a mathematical model of TB in South Africa, and use it to investigate how associations between TB risk factors and vaccine hesitancy may affect reductions in TB incidence achieved through vaccination, and how clustering of vaccine hesitancy by household may affect patterns of transmission and the impact of household screening.