Calibrating infectious disease models to real-time data remains a key computational and methodological challenge in outbreak response, representing a gap between the possibilities presented by such models, and their use in the real-world to inform policy. Bridging this gap is crucial to providing accurate and timely predictions of outbreak trajectories, evaluating control measures, and testing of control strategies.

In the project, the student will develop stochastic dynamical models and inference methodology, utilising high performance computing techniques to calibrate these high-dimensional models in real time. Alongside model development, the candidate will create a modular software library for infection control. This software will enable users to design their own control strategy from a set of pre-defined options and assess their effectiveness. Strategies may include testing protocols, isolation measures and vaccination programmes.

The models and software will be applied in hospital settings, working with NHS partners to develop data-driven approaches for infection control. Hospital outbreaks are a major challenge for infection control and require targeted control measures to be implemented rapidly. Current models in these settings are often constrained by computational complexity and scalability as they need to explicitly represent the complex hospital environment, including ward layouts and the network of staff-patient interactions.

Objectives:
(1) Construct individual-level stochastic dynamical models of transmission for different respiratory pathogens.
(2) Develop methodology to calibrate stochastic transmission models in real-time.
(3) Create modular software to simulate and evaluate infection control strategies.

This project would suit candidates with an interest in dynamical modelling, high performance computing, and solving public health challenges.

Supervisors:
Lead supervisor: Dr Jess Bridgen, School of Mathematical Sciences, Lancaster University
Co-supervisor: Prof. Chris Jewell, School of Mathematical Sciences, Lancaster University

Application process
Applications close 31st January.
This is one of the projects available for October 2026 entry to the MARS PhD programme.
Please contact the lead supervisor of the project you are interested in before you apply. https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/maths/research/mars/phds/mars-indicative-phd-projects/#realtime-modelling-for-infection-control-605041-0
Four year funded studentships available for UK fee status students.

For enquiries please contact Dr Jess Bridgen: j.bridgen@lancaster.ac.uk